ICDP Workshop: The car aftermarket in 2030: ACES to ashes?

ICDP Workshop: The car aftermarket in 2030: ACES to ashes?

There have been many changes in the European car market over the past few years that have had knock-on impact on the aftermarket. New car sales have recovered since the crisis years, but remain volatile, with current prospects looking less favourable. A number of governments have implemented measures to encourage customers to replace their older more polluting vehicles with more environmentally friendly new ones, or have toughened up their condition testing regimes. The average annual distance driven by the typical car has grown slightly recently, at least in some markets. All these factors have already had, and will continue to have consequences for both the size, age structure, and fuel type split of the circulating car parc.

In parallel to these structural changes, some aftersales operators are now having to deal with changes being brought about by the 'ACES' (i.e. Autonomy, Connectivity, Electrification, Sharing schemes), and there is no doubt that as these technologies become mainstream, all types of repairers will face new investment needs in technician skills and training, plus equipment, if they are to remain competitive in tomorrow’s aftermarket. But ultimately, the aftermarket impact of the ‘ACES’ will largely depend on the growth path of these technologies into the total car parc, as well as on the willingness of customers to change their mindset from exclusive usage of their owned vehicle, towards some of the emerging alternatives.

As well as questioning the potential number of ‘ACES-equipped' vehicles in operation in the future, what will their impact be on the different aftersales segments, mechanical repair and maintenance (R&M), and crash repair?

- Will the impact of autonomy mainly be felt in the volume and value of jobs in the crash repair segment?
- How will R&M be affected; will we see the emergence of new, significant and sustainable revenue streams related to sensors and / or camera replacement or (re) calibration?
- How will connectivity affect the balance of power between different types of aftermarket operator? Can we expect connectivity also to have an impact on job volumes or values in the R&M market too? Should we also assume that drivers will be prepared to have their car serviced and repaired more frequently because they have been 'made aware' of problems, malfunctions, or inspection requirements?
- Will the growth of car-sharing schemes displace individual car ownership, reducing the total number of cars on the road, but increasing the R&M needs of the shared cars that are used more intensively?

This workshop will look at these different topics and draw on facts and figures from a range of desk research, expert interviews, and modelling outputs. Our focus will be on six major European markets: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK.

We are also delighted to be joined by Knut M. Breivik from the NBF (Norwegian Dealer Association) who will share his experience on how the growth of EVs has impacted the Norwegian aftermarket.

The cost for attending is €175 plus VAT

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ICDP Workshop: The car aftermarket in 2030: ACES to ashes?

The workshop takes place on 11th April 2019 at a venue at Charles de Gaulle Airport, Paris, France. 10.00 a.m. start and 4.00 p.m. finish allowing you to travel in and out on the day.

The delegate fee is €175 plus VAT.

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ICDP Workshop: The car aftermarket in 2030: ACES to ashes?

9.30 a.m. Coffee on arrival for a 10.00 a.m. start

10.00 a.m. Introduction

We will explore developments in the market environment in order to set the scene of the aftermarket and create our modelling starting point of the 2017 aftermarket in volume and in value across the 6 markets

Secondly, we will give ICDP’s views on the future evolution of some of the ‘traditional’ factors impacting the R&M business, notably the car parc structure by age and fuel type, the average annual distance driven, the evolution of service intervals, reliability levels, the tyre replacement market, etc.

We will then provide a qualitative analysis and discuss the impact that the ‘ACES’ might have on the R&M and crash repair markets
Focusing on electrification, we will then invite Knut M. Breivik, to report on how OEM-franchised workshops are coping with EVs in Norway, Europe’s leading EV market

In the final section of the workshop, we will provide a variety of modelling projection of the 2030 aftermarket volumes and values across the 6 markets covered. We will also give attendees the opportunity to work with our projection model in a ‘hands-on’ session where you will be able to test changes to our working assumptions and see the potential impact on volumes and values of workshop business in 2030

Conclusions and next steps

16:00 p.m. Close

Lunch will be provided, plus coffee breaks.

The cost for attending is €175 plus VAT

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ICDP Workshop: The car aftermarket in 2030: ACES to ashes?

Accommodation should not be required to attend this workshop, however, if you need accommodation, we suggest that you use one of the online booking agencies in order to get the best deal at Paris Charles de Gaulle.

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