Metro Mindlessness – Dogma over Data

There have been a few news stories recently about bans or restrictions on car use or ownership in a number of cities – bans on cars entering Delhi on alternate days, a proposed ban on all diesel cars entering the centre of Bristol, and a roll-out of car-free areas in specified parts of Barcelona.  The co-leader of the UK Green Party highly visible in the current election – has also been a prominent campaigner against “SUVs taking over our cities”.  In each case (and many similar ones elsewhere) political dogma or expediency has dominated rather than hard data and finding the most effective solution to the undoubted problems of urban air quality.

 Whilst we have been generally sceptical of many of the headlines that have accompanied the ACES megatrends (autonomy, connectivity, electrification and sharing), with some recognition that electrification will have some effect progressively over the coming years, these megatrends do not include car use or ownership restrictions.  Arguably this could have the greatest disruptive impact, at least in metro areas, in the next decade.  There is no argument that urban air quality has become an issue in a number of cities where there are also high levels of car ownership and usage, though one does not necessarily follow the other – the air quality in New York last weekend was noticeably better than that in London for example.

 As a local issue, solutions are generally being put forward and implemented, sometimes subject to central Government approval or court challenges, by the local city authorities.  They have demonstrated that they are willing to move faster than central government, but often do so without fully taking into account all the evidence or targeting their actions in a way that is most effective in achieving their aims.  For example, focusing on a vehicle type like SUVs ignores the fact that this would include a mix of powertrain types from clean (Tesla Model X) through to old pre-Euro 4 diesel.  The blanket ban on diesels in Bristol will result in some drivers switching to higher polluting petrol cars away from Euro 6 diesels.  Registration number based bans like those in Delhi, Beijing and Paris arbitrarily remove a total mix of cars from the roads, and encourage richer citizens to have two cars to cover the alternate days.

 In the UK, wood-burning stoves and other types of open fires used for domestic heating account for 38% of particulate matter emissions, twice the level of industrial combustion processes at 16% and over three times that from transportation at 12%.  Marine transport is not only a significant contributor to particle matter emissions in coastal areas, but has also been reported as producing up to 24% of NO2 emissions in Danish and Dutch coastal areas.  As marine transport is largely focused in international waters, regulation at EU or national level has been ineffective, instead relying on the processes of the International Maritime Organisation.

 Without in any way denying the need for action to improve air quality and fight climate change, we need to ensure that the industry’s voice is heard not only through EU bodies and national governments but also locally, and that actions to improve air quality are based on data and hard facts.  Only in this way can we ensure that the benefits are achieved at the fastest possible rate, but also that our industry and our customers are not affected more than is necessary to achieve the desired objectives.