Superstar or super team?

This week’s blog is a couple days later than normal as we have just completed the Summer Meeting for our ICDP Research Programme members – a day and a half of pretty dense research and insights covering everything from connected customer relationships through to potential developments in vehicle powertrains beyond current battery electric technology.  One of the slots was a discussion on how you prepare your organisation to cope with the scale of change and the uncertainty around the nature of that change.  We didn’t manage to get much of a discussion going, which might be down to the dynamics of virtual meetings, but could also relate to the scale of the challenge.

The key problem is that there are still many questions around the direction that change will take us, how quickly that will happen, and will there be another change that overtakes the first one, and takes us off in a different direction?  Taking just one example, as things stand, the industry is preparing for electrified vehicles using Lithium-ion battery technology, which offers a maximum range of say 300-400km for ‘normal’ cars.  This in turn drives needs around manufacturing processes, physical logistics, dealer networks, repairer investments, recharging networks, all of which involve retraining or hiring staff, investing significant sums at every level and re-educating customers who have been used to refuelling their car in a couple minutes at a convenient filling station.

If that change was concrete and once the industry and customer base had adapted we could settle back down again for a few decades, that would be relatively straightforward.  However, within a very few years, we may see Lithium-ion replaced by solid state batteries, offering double the range or more (or the same performance with a battery half the size), dramatically faster charging times (meaning a reduced need for charging points), and probably different technical considerations concerning repair and maintenance.  All of that looks quite likely to happen, but just after that comes in, we may well see hydrogen fuel cells, that could possibly use the increasingly redundant gasoline and diesel filling station network, but have no need for charging stations, and bring in another new technology to aftersales, even if it will still use electric drive systems.  It’s certainly possible that one manufacturer could have three products in their range simultaneously, but at different stages in their product life cycle, one on Lithium-ion, one on solid state and the third on fuel cell…

In planning for these serial changes – which will happen at a different pace in different markets, and not necessarily the same for all brands or products – it is clear that anyone involved in the industry will have to be responsive and be cautious about the scale and justification of related investments.  One of the suggestions in our meeting was that scenario planning could be a useful way to account for the various uncertainties and ensure that plans are ‘future-proofed’ as far as possible.  That is probably a valid comment insofar as it would highlight risks and the potential to make excessive one-way bets that failed if alternative scenarios materialised.

A second comment from one of our members related to what Darwin actually said and meant when he wrote about the origin of the species.  Darwin actually argued a far more compassionate and behavioural case than the ‘fight to the death’ image that many conjure up when thinking about what ‘fittest’ actually means in this context.  The argument is that when a species (or society or company) pull together, then they will succeed, whereas a solo gladiator will ultimately be beaten.  In the context of change management in our industry, this means that the idea of one person or company driving change through is unrealistic.  In the context of multiple changes, following on from each other, with potential for conflict and changes of direction, we do need the team captain who sets the direction, but we need a team who are ready to work together, also responding to the changes in direction as they emerge – responsive and quick on their feet.

Anyone who knows me will understand that I know little about football or rugby, and my ability is even less than my knowledge, but I can understand that we are talking about a beautifully orchestrated team, moving down the pitch, passing the ball, nobody trying to be the hero or ‘man of the match’, but responding to changes whilst still getting towards the goal mouth or touchline.  The focus in my view for change readiness is looking at the quality of the team.  Are there any (like me with football or rugby) who would rather be somewhere else?  Do they understand that there may well be unpredictable changes in direction?  Are they prepared to play their part in moving the organisation forwards, come what may?  If so, I suggest you are well prepared for the change ahead.