The march of technology

Looking at the image, you may wonder what place a very used brake caliper leaning against a can of baked beans has in a blog that is aimed at encouraging people to think about strategic change in automotive distribution, but there is a connection and that relates to the changes that technology has made and will continue to make.  The caliper is for my classic rally car, and is the left hand rear from a Datsun 280ZX made between 1979 and 1981.  The calipers are no longer available as a new or refurbished item, and for some reason the left is much rarer than the right when you look for used parts. And that is where we start to make connections to today’s world, because classic car owners now have eBay to find parts.

I doubt there is any data that will prove this, but I am convinced that more classic cars are on the road now, in better condition, and with a more geographically diverse ownership profile by brand, just because eBay exists.  It does not matter too much whether there is a (relatively) large parc of your model locally, because you can source any part globally.  Traders have more viable businesses because they are not relying on classified advertisements or local trade shows – they can sell globally, and even the most obscure part will find a buyer.  Other than relatively obvious things like brake parts, I have also bought window winder handle retaining clips and a spare wheel retaining clamp for example.

My eBay moment then prompted a further thought.  Given the transformation in the ownership experience and the trading opportunities from a fairly simple innovation like eBay which we now take for granted after 25 years, what else might we see in the next 25 years that will have a similar transformative effect?  I’m not thinking about behavioural or regulatory trends such as whether we will own cars or subscribe to them, or whether we will be able to drive them into our local town centres, but some of the broader technology-driven changes that might affect our industry.  These are my top three – I’d be interested in the results of your crystal ball gazing.

I believe that existing trends in wearable technology will have evolved so that more functions will be included, and the device size will have reduced to the extent that it could – and in some cases – will be ‘worn’ inside the body, rather than outside.  Although many of us would be horrified at having a personal ‘Intel inside’, others will be less concerned about an implant beneath the outer skin layer, just like a microchipped pet.  Neuralink, a business backed by Elon Musk, has just unveiled a pig with an implanted computer chip, and has applied to start human trials next year.  The implications of having all your personal subscriptions, driving records and preferences, and potentially the ability to control devices by thought alone, all in one small device are widespread.  Any vehicle that you legitimately have access to would unlock as you approached it, fuel (electricity presumably?), parking and tolls would be automatically charged to you if a car enabled by your device was picked up by a sensor.  You would not control a car by switches or by voice control, but by thought.

My second tech change that I think will make a difference that today we can only imagine is the roll-out of the internet of things (IoT).  We are all aware of the general principle, that a whole range of objects and systems will be interconnected using the IoT, enabled by the roll-out of 5G technology, but there is the promise of 6G to follow some time after 2030.  5G is still a network in the sense that devices will communicate with each other through a network, but the promise of 6G is not only that speeds will be even greater – over 100GB per second, equivalent to downloading 142 hours of movies in a second – but that it will be possible to connect devices directly to other devices, further improving performance.  This is also expected to accelerate trends in wearable (and embedded) devices.  Whatever form our personal transportation takes, it will be connected to infrastructure, other vehicles, weather satellites, vehicle monitoring services and other road users including cyclists and pedestrians.  Traffic accidents will become a thing of the past, vehicle usage will be controlled and directed to minimize congestion and energy usage, and it will be impossible to park in a restricted waiting area or commit other types of driving offence.

My third – and perhaps obvious – trend for 25 years out is that combustion engines will have finally succumbed to the improved economics and technology of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs).  Whilst the lifecycle CO2 impact of BEVs is currently worse than other options due to how we produce electricity, breakthroughs in space-based solar farms and nuclear fusion are predicted by some futurists by 2045.  This would not only enable charging of BEVs with green electricity, but also the green production of hydrogen if this becomes the preferred option for heavy commercial vehicles.  If the true environmental impact is in favour of BEVs and FCEVs, the current limitations in everyday usage are removed, and the cost of production has reduced to comparability or better with combustion engines, how can investment in traditional powertrains be justified?

Which brings me back to my opening point.  Twenty-five years ago, the world wide web was just six years old, we did not have eBay, and the first smartphone (the IBM Simon Personal Communicator)  had only recently made its debut.  (The iPhone did not follow for another 15 years.)  The changes I have described seem almost modest in comparison, but the implications for personal transportation and the industry that produces, sells and supports them are massive.  Moreover, I am not sure how my 240Z will fit into this brave new world…