Electric vehicles, the long slow ride of Italy towards 2035 targets

This BLOG is a contribution from our research partners in Italy, Quintegia. Author: Nicola Pasqualin, ​Researcher & EV Specialist

Whether we consider 2035, the deadline to ban petrol or diesel engine car sales as per European Commission decision, or 2030, the moment which most manufacturers are referring to as the first milestone, Italy is lagging behind. The Italy Progress Index, (also known as IPI) engineered by Quintegia, monitors the quarterly evolution of the level of electrification in the Italian automotive market and is well positioned to become the benchmark for the players in this industry. Elegantly structured to accommodate both a deeper zoom-in at local areas level (e.g. Provinces) and a broader zoom-out to become the consistent index for other European nations (e.g. Germany Progress Index). But now talking about Italy, the 1Q 2022 IPI scores 46.1, which – moving in a scale from 0 to 100 – is telling us the country is running half the speed in this quarter compared to the pace required to meet the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan to 2030, the current targets set by the Italian government. More worrying, the trend has been consistently so in the full past year, with no positive outliers to make us thing this is not fundamentally structural.

Looking at the mechanics of the index, there are three main components: BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles) parc currently on the roads, the quarterly registrations of BEV and - last but not least - the charging infrastructures in the country, by number and power output. But, why a drop in the 1Q 2022 performance vs prior quarter, which marked 56.3? Directionally the biggest factor to influence the result is the delay in incentives approval by the Government. In 2021 IPI never fell below 50 with the lowest level at 50.7 in the 1Q. As a matter of fact, Italy was the only EU country to see a 14.9% decline in EV sales from January to March vs the same period of prior year. Combined pure electric and plug-in hybrid new car registrations are equal to 8.3% of the total, one-third of the market share in Germany (24.2%) and Britain (22.5%) and half of the French one (19.9%). Be careful, however. The low IPI performance doesn’t translate in a low disposition of customers to consider the purchase of an electric car. 2021 represents a turning point moment for electric mobility in the country. In 2021, according to Motus-E, the Italian trade association focused on enabling the transition to electric vehicles, more than 135,000 EVs were sold and the number of charging points grew at a higher pace compared to the past, with an improved power mix (3% are actually above 50kw). Finally, according to the report carried out jointly by Quintegia and Motus-E “Electric mobility: unavoidable or not?”, based on data by Element Energy, the Italian consumer will increasingly “go electric”. 77% of them are expected to be ready to buy a pure electric vehicle by 2050. The turning point will be 2030, with 51% of Italian consumers willing to consider it. Pace is a concern, but direction is definitely settled.

BEV - Italy Progress Index

 Engineered by Quintegia, BEV - Italy Progress Index aims to be an easy-to-read quarterly reference point for understanding the electrification level of the Italian automotive market. The index, represented by a score between 0 and 100, indicates the percentage of achievement of gradual quarterly objectives which, if respected, will make it possible to achieve the latest available targets set for 2030 (PNIEC). The data were grouped into three main components: the BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) Parc, the quarterly new BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) registrations and the electric charging infrastructures, assessed by number and power output. Data sources are reliable and consistent, contributing to a rock-solid tool for analysis and insights both at intra-country area level and if you are looking for other European country assessment. Taking now into consideration the trend over time, after a continuous growth that took place throughout 2021, there is a significant decline in the first quarter of 2022 mainly due to the halving of BEV registrations compared to the previous quarter. Charging infrastructures, on the other hand, are slightly growing, both in quantity and in power output. A final score of 46.1 indicates that in Italy we are running half the speed compared to what it would take to cope with 2030 targets.